SAMMARCO: Some 2020 Predictions

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Thursday, January 2, 2020


Does anyone remember the government shutdown that began 2019? Ask your friend if he can remember which politicians were exposed this year for wearing blackface. I bet he won’t get all of them. From the impeachment hearings to the absurdity that is the Democrat primary race, much news has been lost amidst the tumult. Perhaps 2020 will be even worse. With a Presidential election and many other consequential political events on the horizon, here are some predictions about the political landscape and beyond in 2020.

The Democratic National Convention will feature a brokered convention

It still is unclear who Democrats will choose to be their Presidential nominee next year. While Joe Biden enjoys a comfortable 9 point lead in the national polls, he is struggling in the early primary states. In Iowa, Biden trails both Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. The same goes for New Hampshire. Such poor showings in early primaries can kill the chances of the front-runner, regardless of polls. Future-president Barack Obama’s shock victory in the 2008 Iowa caucus stalled Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. Similarly, unless Biden can lock up a majority of delegates in southern and Midwestern primaries, expect a floor fight in Milwaukee.  

Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination for President of the United States

Buckle up Democrats, your nominee to challenge President Trump for the White House will be a 78 year old socialist from Vermont. Bernie’s ascent to the nomination will be credited to the one thing he has over all other candidates: enthusiasm. In a brokered convention, the candidate most able to whip delegates to their side will reign supreme. With an army of young supporters rearing for a socialist President and unwavering core supporters composing roughly 17% of the Democrat voting base, Bernie is poised to capture the nomination in a fractured field.

At least two Republicans Senators will vote for removal in Trump’s impeachment trial

Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski seem to be the members most inclined to cast a guilty vote. Collins is tremendously unpopular in her home state of Maine and faces a strong challenge from a Democrat in her 2020 reelection bid, and so an impeachment vote could win over swing voters. Furthermore, Collins was openly critical of Majority Leader McConnell’s decision not to call any witnesses in a Senate trial. Similarly, Senator Murkowski has not made a decision on guilt or innocence. Other guilty votes could include Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Senator Romney of Utah, both of whom have remained silent throughout the impeachment inquiry. 

The Supreme Court will end DACA

Consequential cases SCOTUS will decide next year touch on gun rights, abortion, the remnants of ObamaCare, and many other hot button issues. DACA, the Obama-era policy that temporarily allows hundreds of thousands of young illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S., is so obviously unconstitutional the Supreme Court will have no choice but to allow the Trump Administration’s decision to end the program to go through. Though the legal protection DACA provides to the “Dreamers” will end, Congress should pass legislation providing a path to citizenship for Dreamers who are productive members of society. SCOTUS’s initial decision will spark outrage and protests across the country. Hopefully, Congress will not exploit the Dreamers’ plight for political gain but that may be too much to ask for our polarized political scene. 

Bonus Predictions

Democrat Ticket: Bernie Sanders and Stacey Abrams

Fresh off his ascent to the heights of the Democrat Party but struggling to get minority voters on board, Bernie picks the loser of the 2018 Georgia Governor’s race as his running mate. 

Super Bowl LIII Champion: New England Patriots

The Patriots pull off a surprise run to Miami on the backs of their stellar defense. Tom Brady retires after his seventh Super Bowl ring.  

Highest Grossing Movie in America: Top Gun: Maverick

The trend of nostalgic, somewhat childish action movies crushing at the box office continues. Fathers bring their kids to the movies to pass down America’s love for fast motorcycles, faster jets, explosions, and beautiful women to the next generation. 

2020 Election: Trump suffers shock defeat 

Democrats rally as they did in 2018 to vote against President Trump. Voters in the Midwest, not seeing the jobs Trump promised coming back, pull the lever for change—this time in the form of socialism. The death of MAGA politics leave the GOP in shambles. See state-by-state prediction below. 

Make your own at https://www.270towin.com/.

Nick Sammarco studies economics and Spanish at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.

The views expressed in this article are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Lone Conservative staff.


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About Nick Sammarco

Suffolk University

Nick Sammarco studies economics and Spanish at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.

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