Admit it, you clicked on this article for one of two reasons— you’re either are a conservative like me and want to know exactly why I would be advocating for an impeachment of President Trump or you’re a moderate/liberal who is relieved to finally see Republican support for the removal of the President. But alas, this article is neither of those two assessments. I do not support the actual removal of President Trump, nor his impeachment, but all signs point to him being impeached this year. However, Trump’s impeachment could help the Republicans in 2020, not only in state and Congressional races, but also the Presidential election as well.
How could the Democrats impeaching President Trump accomplish these things? The answer is twofold. Impeachment would ignite Donald Trump’s base (who elected him in the first place) and would alienate moderates and moderate Democrats who are the only people with a chance of beating Trump in 2020.
Let’s start by getting one thing straigh— Donald Trump will face impeachment this year. The Democratic leadership wants it, their rabid base wants it, and most of the entire party has boxed themselves into it by campaigning on it in 2018. So, my prediction is that the Democrats will attempt to impeach Trump in 2019. But, as I said before, this could help Republicans in 2020.
Bringing the impeachment charges would start by accomplishing the first of two goals: reigniting Trump’s base. In the 2018 midterms, the Republicans fell flat on their faces trying to turn out moderates that supported Trump in 2016, people that are known to many as Reagan Democrats. These moderates went Democrat for the most part in 2019, putting the Republicans in a potentially rough spot for 2020. One possible solution to this is a Democratic failure to remove Trump in 2019, or, more specifically, for the Democrats trying to impeach Trump on bogus and overblown charges. The Republicans could use this as a pitch in 2020, labeling Democrats as incredibly radical and incapable of holding the office of the Presidency.
Such a potential campaign pitch would accomplish the second impact of impeaching President Trump: the Democrats scaring off the moderates they managed to gain in 2018. Moderates, especially those who live in suburban areas, want security and stability and were turned off by the feeling of chaos inside the Trump administration. The Democrats impeaching Trump would likely reverse the tide of moderates turning towards the party by making them appear to the moderates as radical, off-base members of Congress who are motivated only by hatred for the President and unqualified to control the levers of power.
This particular outcome requires the Republicans to correct their own alienating messaging as well, but, as we saw in the 2016 election, that is not an impossible feat. In a poll conducted during the 2018 midterms, the Washington Post reported that, “47 percent of independents said they would definitely not vote for a candidate who supports impeachment.” Assuming those polls still hold true, almost half of moderates and independent voters would vote for Republicans if Democrats voted for impeachment. That margin would realistically be enough to boost Republicans’ chances to keep the Senate and retake the House in 2020, while also easing Trump’s path to reelection.
Bottom line, whether you want President Trump impeached or not, such efforts will fail in the Senate. Also, as shown above, such an attempt at impeachment in 2019 would crucify the Democrats, hurting their party’s chances in 2020. Luckily for Republicans, the Democrats look sure to attempt impeachment— revealed by this recent statement by Freshman Representative Rashida Tlaib— and, in an ironic twist, save President Trump’s presidential chances in the process.
The views expressed in this article are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Lone Conservative staff.